I'm the world biggest fan of Chico's. Maybe not the world's biggest but one of them. I traded in and out of CHS for awhile, then it dawned on me, the stock basically only goes up. Check out this 5 year chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CHS&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= This company has SPLIT 6 times since 2000!!!! More importantly, their has been a 3300% increase in stock price during the same period. The shares I have now I bought after the last split. The stock dumped to $14. I'm just under a triple since last year. Plus, if you have a Chico's in your area and you have a wife over 35 take her there. Watch how much she will spend :)
I bought Disney right after Sept 11 2001, I figured $20 a share was good but it seems like it will be a REAL slow grower, I'm not afraid of investing in Disney but I think I can make more money faster somewhere else. Am I correct?
Well the Disney and Cisco will be sold in the morning and I'm buying Chico's, Paychex, Home Depot and Krispy Kreme with the money I get from those two.
[quote:82fa994a46="bobjitsu"]Well the Disney and Cisco will be sold in the morning and I'm buying Chico's, Paychex, Home Depot and Krispy Kreme with the money I get from those two.[/quote:82fa994a46] It's hard to argue with that strategy. You will be dumping some slow grower, no grower types for two truly impressive growth companies and a dominant home improvement supplier. All of those companies should do very well.
I would have to agree. Stocks that perform are always worth it in the long run.
Bobjitsu.. Did you get these stocks on a dip by any chance? It looked if the general market was down last Friday, and you may have a window of opportunity to get a little discount on them anyhow..
Because I'm with Sharebuilder they are being bought today. They have made a few really good changes to Sharebuilder BTW, they used to have a Friday noon deadline to buy stock on the following Tuesday and now the deadline is Monday 2pm PST.....it makes it alot better. Here is what I used to have and what I have changed to as of today... Used to have Wal-Mart Medtronics Pfizer Pepsi Cisco Disney Mcdonalds (Just a few shares) Now I have Wal-Mart Medtronics Pfizer Pepsi Chico's Home Depot Krispey Kreme Paychex Park Place Entertainment...just for fun ($10 a share, why not?)
nice little portfolio :) keep contributing and watch it grow!!
I wouldn't buy Chico's. They are doing good job - BS, IS and CFS are fantastic, but the company is overpriced: P/E ratio more than 38. Just compare it with competitors - Ann Taylor (ANN) P/E 20; they show at least the same level of growth, all financial statements also great; BTW industry P/E is around 17. also, look at the insider transactions for the last month - long list of automatic sales If you really want to buy it buy short Stan.
I've been waiting for someone to say "short Chico's". After all, 24 per cent of the entire float is short now. So far people who have been shorting Chico's have gone straight to the poor house. Their trailing P/E is always above 30. However, factor in their recent growth rates and it's never that expensive. Their recent SSS of 22.2% make things very interesting. BTW, welcome Stanislav :welcome
I would bank on them performing. I would not bank on shorting them..
i have a question that might not really relate to the stock but i was wondering what is selling and buying short? and how do they cause to make or loose money.:!: Thanks
Hi Chahine, Good question. When you buy a stock you "go long". You pay the broker, you own the stocks and if the go up and you sell them they make money. Shorting is just the opposite. When you short a stock you sell shares that you don't own. If the price drops, you buy them back and make the profit. People who go short are hoping that stock prices go down. There is one other extreme caution with shorting a stock: some stocks never go down so your loss could be infinite. Knowing that, make sure you have your stops in place before shorting a stock. If you plan on shorting Chico's, I suggest looking for another career :)
[quote:692410a942="HappyHarry"] If you plan on shorting Chico's, I suggest looking for another career :)[/quote:692410a942] LOL
[quote:9e796d341c="HappyHarry"]Hi Chahine, Good question. When you buy a stock you "go long". You pay the broker, you own the stocks and if the go up and you sell them they make money. Shorting is just the opposite. When you short a stock you sell shares that you don't own. If the price drops, you buy them back and make the profit. People who go short are hoping that stock prices go down. There is one other extreme caution with shorting a stock: some stocks never go down so your loss could be infinite. Knowing that, make sure you have your stops in place before shorting a stock. If you plan on shorting Chico's, I suggest looking for another career :)[/quote:9e796d341c] thanks does make sense to me now how it works on the basic level i guess i will do more research on it to find out the strategies behind it. sounds interesting. 8) :)
Shorting stocks is not really intuitive. I did it a few times and even made money but I didn't like the idea of "rooting" for a company to go down. It's a viable strategy, but not for everyone.
to me it sounds good because im a beginner so im looking and trying to find the trading style that i think would fit me the most. the only way i guess is to trying the different strategies. having a small budjet is 1 constraint i have so trying to increase it is one pain but also a challenge. if u can advice me of any trading strategies pls don't hesitate me... because the more strategies i get my hand on the better idea i will have to which suits my tolerance level and which one can generate me more money on a short and long run.... thnx Chahine
When you have a limited budget the best thing usually to do is go with a Value Investing approach. You want to find the stock that gets "beat up" bad as investors abandon it. But this only works if the company is still a viable company and if they can make a comeback. To search for companies like this search for companies with low P/E's.
[quote:7dd58c9c40="HappyHarry"]When you have a limited budget the best thing usually to do is go with a Value Investing approach. You want to find the stock that gets "beat up" bad as investors abandon it. But this only works if the company is still a viable company and if they can make a comeback. To search for companies like this search for companies with low P/E's.[/quote:7dd58c9c40] what range 0-20 or -?? to 10 or anyothers chahine
I have had a lot of luck in the last three years with stocks between $2 and $10. If you can find a stock with Price/earnings of 2-8 and a price under $10 it is almost always worth a look. Like I said before, in particular if you can find a real company that has fallen but is likely to recover, you have a gold mine on your hands. I bought ACF earlier this year at $2 and sold at $9 within a few months. But I was extremely familiar with the company and new that they dropped too far too soon. I don't know about other people but I have been having a real good year with stocks this year. I have learned a very big rule though: the less stocks you own the better.
[quote:fda73e9f26="HappyHarry"] I have learned a very big rule though: the less stocks you own the better.[/quote:fda73e9f26] Explain why you think this, I'm interested.
It's a lot easier to manage fewer stocks. You don't have to watch the news all day long to panic if one of the duds in your portfolio flames out. Also, you get a much greater concentrated return if you hold a couple stocks that do really well. Robert Hagstrom wrote a whole book about it. Focus Investment is his approach and he's having a huge year with Legg Mason. Diversification offers some protection but people with few stocks will always end up making bigger returns, as long as those stocks are winners.
[quote:59090d9950="HappyHarry"]It's a lot easier to manage fewer stocks. You don't have to watch the news all day long to panic if one of the duds in your portfolio flames out. Also, you get a much greater concentrated return if you hold a couple stocks that do really well. Robert Hagstrom wrote a whole book about it. Focus Investment is his approach and he's having a huge year with Legg Mason. Diversification offers some protection but people with few stocks will always end up making bigger returns, as long as those stocks are winners.[/quote:59090d9950] interesting!!! because i have kind of been following same idea unintentionally.... i had in my portfolio 2 companies when i started the stocks i bough were CDE at 1.70 still running up PAAS boiught at 7.30 still running high SIRI at .69 sold with 130% WHT still going CHU flying to the moon :wink: the reason to me to not invest in more was that my budjet was too low and i did not want to invest my initial investment. so i set a target of 3 - 5 companies like above which were worth keeping or were showing signs of potential high returns. I guess the comment of focus investment makes sense because the less stocks u have the more accurate is going to be ur investment what i mean by it is that u will look more into the company in detail and be able to find any covered up problems compared to if u had 20 or 30 companies it would be impossible to find the really value and potential of each company. im happy to find that my way of trading does really exist somewhere and that its really efficient. thnx chahine
Yep! It's been working great for me. I have been keeping only 3-5 stocks at any time and doing really well. So far my biggest problem has been selling too early. I bought COF at $39 and sold it at $48. It is now $60. I have a bunch of stories like that. So I guess we are both "focus investors".
yeh i agree well i will try to explain the process i go through to trade or find stocks that would be of interest to me. as u know my main purpose is to build investmetn size. right now its minimal.. The process i go through is through the screeners and track down for stocks below 10$ usually there are massive numbers. And i like to look at sector wise breaking it up into sectors that i understand ( idea of buffett only invest in market or industry u understand) my predominance is tech, mining. After i look if there are a lot i even break it down to lower prices like 0-5 or even at times 0-2 or lower. after when usually the number company breaks down i go through each of them for signs of potential or iminent growth. (painful part going from the past and understanding where they are going 8O ) after when i find companies that seems to give me the potential growth that i want i go into the whole global level of how they are competing , and against who and whole buffetts base trading style to locate best stocks. I usually try to get stocks that are beaten down and they have products or markets that just waiting to make money off. SIRI as an example. the companies that im uncertain about i keep them in my paper trading portfolio to follow. from that i learn :idea: i usually that my average return from this has been around 30 to 50 % but luckily i have some big winners right now that hopefully will boost the average up :wink: this is my basic flow of my trading style. pls let me know what u think and where i could improve upon and where i could be able to generate more money out of. Main target offcourse :twisted: thankx chahine
I think you have a decent strategy, not unlike many others. The main question is how long to hold after you make a gain. When you are just starting out and want more capital it is always tempting to sell when you get a 50% gain. In fact, that was Benjamin Graham's sell rule: sell when a stock has risen 50%. But I have been seeing stocks DOUBLE in the last year. I am veering more and more to qality stocks: meaning fast growth in earnings, earnings stability and increasing sales growth.
interesting benjamin graham because im reading a book called Intelligent investor basically grahams philosophy and trading strategy which if im not wrong was 1 of the basis of buffet's strategy... interesting... i have just started but i enjoy it a lot. chahine
Benjamin Graham wrote the masterpiece of value investing in the book "The Intelligent Investor". Graham was actually Buffett's college professor at Columbia. Buffett studied under him and worked for him so his style was a key component of his thinking. Over the years Buffett started adding the thoughts of Fisher and Charlie Munger to his style and the results were even better than Graham-style investing alone. Definitely that book is the best foundation you can lay for understanding certain rationale and techniques. Good choice you made studying that book.
actually i'didn't know but a friend suggested me that book. i also reading "the new buffettology" which is also a good book.... chahine
Almost all of the Buffett books are good because they give you insight into how to value companies. Definitely helps a good bit.
i love buffetts books and the value investing, focus investing idea. i have however 1 problem that i don't seem to be able to grasp... the idea of the intrinsic value... what is it in simple terms and how can it be calculated??? :?:
Here is a tool which will help you grasp it quickly: http://www.quicken.com/investments/seceval/?p=COF&cmetric=intrinsic It is basically earnings, times a number of years, versus a discount rate. The discount rate is the amount Buffett could earn in a safer investment, rather than putting money in the stock. The Quicken tool uses "analysts earnings" predictions to calculate the potential intrinsic value. Check that example I gave you. It values COF at $130 so if you buy it at $60 you have a nice margin of safety.
[quote:172d92cdbb="alfredsokol"]Here is a tool which will help you grasp it quickly: http://www.quicken.com/investments/seceval/?p=COF&cmetric=intrinsic It is basically earnings, times a number of years, versus a discount rate. The discount rate is the amount Buffett could earn in a safer investment, rather than putting money in the stock. The Quicken tool uses "analysts earnings" predictions to calculate the potential intrinsic value. Check that example I gave you. It values COF at $130 so if you buy it at $60 you have a nice margin of safety.[/quote:172d92cdbb] nice thnx this makes more sense now....... thnx chahine
That's why companies have to have earnings to be able to value them.
That whole Quicken site is cool. I like how they run the stocks through the different investing formulas. Gives you a decent idea of how they all work.
[quote:eea9aea859="HappyHarry"]That whole Quicken site is cool. I like how they run the stocks through the different investing formulas. Gives you a decent idea of how they all work.[/quote:eea9aea859] yeh i agree and helps make a better decision too seeing if all the strategy result giving u a good idea. chahine
Another good site is [url=http://www.morningstar.com]Morningstar.com[/url]. It's $99 per year for the analysis, but the free tools are also very good. I bought the analysis because I like to have at least one analyst opinion. Most importantly, they work for Morningstar and not brokerage houses so their opinion tends to be honest. They made some very good calls concerning COF earlier this year. They had it as a screaming buy at $35 and it sure has been.
ill check em out... right now im pushing to increase my portfolio performance with the limited bujet. Im pretty happy of it.... :D I started investing only 100$ and tripled that money with some still climbing to heights like CHU. the only thing i have been having problem is when to get out of them and take profit. i had 3 investments done in teh last 6 months in 2 out of 3 i came out of them fast enough and missed the main big climb... :( ur opinions on that .... advice to improve or get more skill on that aspect.... chahine
If you see a big run-up, sell. Yes, you might miss out on more money later, but no one ever went broke taking a profit. If you can get your money up from $100 to something plausible, that will be a very impressive accomplishment!
[quote:eff87f69d3="HappyHarry"]If you see a big run-up, sell. Yes, you might miss out on more money later, but no one ever went broke taking a profit. If you can get your money up from $100 to something plausible, that will be a very impressive accomplishment![/quote:eff87f69d3] my whole budjet in investment is about 300$ right now. my target is to double it in the next 3 to 4 months. for that i will have to work hard but i think in the long run its worth it..... if i can crack down from 100 to 300 im sure that i can get 300 to 600... i guess just doing my homework... being opportunistic.... and use at the best the tools that are provided to me..... i will keep u all informed about it because there might be times just ur ideas on discussion would enlighten on a sector of investment where all of us can make money.... chahine
You can do it chahine! The only thing you have to do is avoid a huge loss. That is all anyone has to do. Capital preservation has got to be the number on concern for any investor.
The secret is being able to double your initial investment. If you are able to double 5 times, your initial investment of a mere 300 dollars, it would be worth $9,600.00 That would be a pretty tasty return indeed!! :D
indead that would be nice...... well i think that its possible with some homework well done and some perseverence and luck i guess. i have triple my initial 100 to 300 now step 2 doubling that to 600..... with the amount of advice im getting with u all i think i will be able to achieve it.... just a question of time.... chahine
You can definitely do it. Follow the rule of 72. Here's a site: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/rule72.htm If you can get a 72% gain in one year you double your money. That is an annualized gain. If you can do it faster, then your annualized rate of return is faster. When you can hit a stock like ACF which multiplied 7 times in 6 months you are well on your way to wealth building.
interesting i had never herd of this 72 rule.... im checking it out right now and seems very interesting. and not too complex.. chahine
Yep. It is very easy. Give you specifics on what you need to do to achieve a certain goal.
Keep in mind Warren Buffett is considered to be the greatest investor ever and he did with around a 27.7% annualized compounded return. That is something to shoot for.
sounds a challenge but im actually aiming for a 10% right in the starting and bring it up few percent on a regual basis chahine
i found this stock tom.v can u guys give me ur opinion they seem to have good cash but i want to have external opinion. chahine
The last bit of news from them was: [URL=http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/030827/ccd106dbd200ba7bff7796520fea6d00_1.html]Story[/url] Sales are down by 50% from the prior year but they claim they have contracts which will push sales way up this year. Maybe call their Investor Relations department and ask some questions.
Looks like another godawful stock according to that news. I'd pass on that one.
I would also have to pass on that one. There are many others out there with real capacities to earn..
Stick to the stocks with big earnings. It will help you in the long run.
That rule of 72 is actually pretty cool. Not really as hard as you might think to grow wealth. You just need consistent positive gains.
**Somewhere in the beginning of this thread there was mention of Disney Stock** Comcast put in a bid to buy Disney today for about 50 Billion in stock.. Disney went up 14% today..
[quote:57bcef5340="Hathor"]**Somewhere in the beginning of this thread there was mention of Disney Stock** Comcast put in a bid to buy Disney today for about 50 Billion in stock.. Disney went up 14% today..[/quote:57bcef5340] Great....just great..... :cry:
That is why timing is so important. There was a worker that got killed in some parade mishap yesterday too. He was in full costume and got crushed by a float. Talk about bad timing.
There's no predicting offers like that. I have to hope Disney ignores that offer.